I am always on the lookout for some positive news on DDR4 pricing, in the past few years we have seen the prices escalate by over three-fold in many cases. Since December the price races have slowed down and even dropped in many cases, but not where near to the levels of 2016.
There have been lots of news reports about pricing, most of which I have posted about. One day it is DRAM oversupply forecasts indicated that DDR4 will drop in price, the next Samsung are reducing production to maintain prices.
The price increases were due to a combination of supply problems and heavy demand for smartphones and tablets. Or alternatively, it could have been companies colluding to limit supply and increase costs.
However, with device uptake slowing and along with a weak PC market, demand is finally easing up. The ongoing Intel 14nm shortage is also helping keep demand low. With CPUs serving at the bottleneck, sales are expected to weaken.
New market research carried out by DRAMeXchange indicates that we should see a 5% drop in DRAM prices over the last couple of months of the year. DRAM covers all aspects of RAM including DDR4 in modern consumer PCs, server RAM, and LPDDR found in mobiles.
Analysts expect that DRAM prices will fall by about 5% by the end of this year. Already, spot prices for DRAM are about 10% below contract prices. This is making it clear that it is buyers market right now.
|PC DRAM||1~2 percent||-4 percent~Flat||~-5 percent|
|Server DRAM||~1 percent||-2 percent~Flat||~-5 percent|
|Mobile DRAM||Discrete: Flat
eMCP: -3 percent~Flat
|Discrete: -2 percent~Flat
eMCP: -2~-5 percent
|Discrete: -2~-5 percent
eMCP: -3~-8 percent
|Consumer DRAM||DDR3: -2 percent
|DDR3: -3 percent~Flat
DDR4: -1~-4 percent
|DDR3: ~-3 percent
DDR4: ~-5 percent
|DRAM ASP||>3 percent||-1~-3 percent||~-5 percent|
Source: DRAMeXchange, Sep. 2018
If you look at Amazon and use websites such as camelcamelcamel.com or the plugin Keepa you will see that the DDR4 market is a lot more positive for buyers than it was.
As it currently stands you can pick up one stick of 8GB of Corsair 2400 MHz DDR4 for just £66.81 on Amazon, in December this cost £100.94 giving you a 33.8% drop in price.
Corsair 2 x 8 GB DDR4 2400 MHz has dropped from £170 to £127 giving you a 25% drop.
These sound like huge drops but don't forget that just over two years ago that same 2 x 8 GB DDR4 cost just £57 giving you a 122% increase based on today's costs.
If you are willing to shop around you can pick up some decent buys G.SKILL Sniper X DDR4 PC19200 2400MHz is was just £116.45 recently and TeamGroup Vulcan TUF Gaming 3000MHZ 16GB (2X8GB) was briefly available on overclockers for £119.99.