A year ago most serious tech pundits would have laughed at the idea of a “mini” iPad out of Apple. The late Steve Jobs made it clear that the idea of a seven inch (17.8 cm) iPad was not on as such a “tweener” between the iPhone and the larger iPad was not wanted and would be “DOA”. However the rumors never quite died out and since Jobs passing in October 2011, have taken on new life.  Now, sources as diverse as CNET, Digitimes, Boy Genus Report and Wired are all suggesting that Apple will release a smaller tablet with a smaller screen size (17.8 com), and  less memory (8 GB vs the current minimum of 16 GB) and probably Wi-Fi only.  Interestingly, all sources agree that the rumored Apple tablet would retain the Retina class display. In fact, the new iOS device would have the highest pixel density of any iPad. Pricing has been rumored as low as $200.00 USD or £125.00.  This kind of pricing would be almost break even, or even lose a little per unit for Apple.

Some are saying that this is an attempt to kill off the downmarket Android tablets, especially the Kindle Fire, which accounts for almost half of of Android tablet sales in the United States last quarter. Others are saying that its an attempt by Apple chief operating officer Tim Cook to show that he is  his own man and not tied to the decisions of the late Mr. Jobs. Another view is the unexpected success of the Samsung Note’s huge screened smartphone has caused a reevaluation of what the consumers want.  While the general public may never know what is driving Apple’s product decisions, a review of the more reliable rumor reporting on the Web and a look at recent Apple moves tend to not only confirm that the iPad mini is real, but that Steve Jobs would have not only approved, but may well have set the gears in motion prior to his passing.

Back in January, Apple announced a partnership with American textbook makers and the introduction of the iBook2 format and publishing software. As we pointed out in our analysis of the move, school boards would be stymied by the high cost of supplying iPads to students in lieu of dead tree textbooks.  Unsurprisingly, this is exactly how things have played out over the last few months. Everyone likes the idea, but the iPads cost too much. Even if schools went with the cheapest iPad on offer, its still well beyond the cost of supplying every student with a Windows 7 Basic netbook.  In order to make the idea of iTextbooks viable, Apple has to either deeply discount the lower end of the existing iPad line or come up with a new solution.

Steve Jobs was a major advocate of education. Apple has historically provided deep discounts to academics, students and schools for its hardware and software. Apple has also quietly funded grants to put iPads into the classrooms, often at smaller, rural school districts in the US. Further, Jobs is famous for changing his sails while decrying the very direction he is planning to go. For example, in the early 2000s Jobs publicly stated that Apple was not interested in a smartphone. Jobs also had a real desire to put Apple into every aspect of a consumer’s life, and schools were no exception. When Amazon Kindles proved the world was ready to read off a smaller, hand held form factor, Apple engineers may well have gotten their marching orders to come up with a low cost tablet.

So why was an iPad mini not announced at the January meeting? The best reason is that the new iPad was about to be released and Apple did not want anything to cut into its sales. The fact that the third generation iPad was not called the “iPad 3″ could be a tell that Apple is going to introduce a new, different tablet line.  Further supporting that the iPad mini is squarely aimed at the education market is that the screen will be a retina display. The dense display makes it far easier on the eyes for reading. Because the expectation would be that students would not be downloading The Avengers movies, or an over abundance of apps, the smaller memory is not a problem either. In any case, with all the cloud based solutions, a lot of on board memory is not the need it once was.

If the rumors come to pass, then expect an announcement of the iPad mini as soon as the Apple World Wide Developers Conference in June, with a sale date in late July or early August. Pricing is likely to be sub $200.00 USD for schools and $250.00 USD for consumers. While the consumer price is still higher than the Kindle Fire, when you factor in the greater usability of the iPad line it’ s worth the extra quid. Unless you are seeking a pure media consumption device, which is how Amazon views the Fire and why the UK release appears to be mired in content carriage issues, anyone on the tablet fence is likely to jump to iOS. Apple also neatly avoids any anti-competitive entanglements because this is a school device after all. Any popularity in the general consumer market? Well competition happens.

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Why we may see an iPad Mini in the UK before we see a Kindle Fire

Computer systems today are often called on to make predictions based on data provided to them. Sales forecasts, power usage, the weather, and even the little lights that come on in posher cars that tell you something is starting to go wonky are all based on software that is in turn based on predictive algorithms. This is how Amazon constantly changes what it thinks you might buy, and Goggle can creep you out by offering to sell you what you are searching about. The crafting of such programs are calls for laborious and highly skilled coding and constant fine tuning of the factors used to make the predictions.  Each system has to be customized for each situation and is very expensive to maintain. We are a long way away from the Star Trek world of telling the computer what you want analysed or having Mr. Spock work it out.

Perhaps we are not that far away after all, OGs (Original Geeks) know that Jeff Hawkins was the mastermind behind the first successful  handheld computer, the Palm Pilot, the grandfather of all Palm PDAs. He then went on to co develop the Treo, the first smartphone. Since 2005, he has been working with Numenta following what was actually his first love, neuroscience. Hawkins has since been seeking a solution that has dogged artificial intelligence developers since day one, how to make computers learn and understand without all the tweaking it takes now.  Grok, a prediction engine, now in private beta seeks to do just that.

Calling the cloud based system “Grok” is both a homage to the late Grand Master of science fiction, Robert A. Heinlein, who coined the phrase as a Martian word in his 1961 classic Stranger in a Strange Land   and as a thumbnail explaination of what Hawkins seeks to do. The Heinlein defines the word thus; ”Grok means to understand so thoroughly that the observer becomes a part of the observed—to merge, blend, intermarry, lose identity in group experience.”

Grok seeks to meet its ambitious name by use of Cortical Learning Algorithms that allow the system to create models on the fly and modify them based on new data in a process called “online learning” Grok can also flag anomalous and unusual data as well, based on what it is fed. It is also far more generalist in its approach, being able to tailor itself to a specific situation. For example, if you are an engineer tasked to create building climate control systems, instead of custom programming a system for every building,  one instance of Grok can be developed for a building and then deployed to all similar buildings and Grok will learn the quirks of the particular building system its managing.

Its still early days yet, but Grok promises to lead to systems that make Siri developmentally delayed by comparison. And understand you all the time.

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Is Grok Jeff Hawkins Third Act?

Ok, our society is always bigger, stronger, faster. Mates compare the size of their respective flat screen televisions like their significant others compare the size of …other things.  The more we demand out of our smart phones, the more features the handset makers cram into the devices. In fact, most leading edge smart phones are more powerful and capable than our desktop computers of not too many years ago.  Once one makes the decision to buy either a Android, Apple, Blackberry or Windows Phone from there features are the only way for one handset carrier to distinguish itself from another. Even Apple and RIM, the maker of the Blackberry, differentiate their respective offerings based on price and capabilities.

There is a price for all of this power in our hands. That price is of course paid by the battery.  The more we demand of smart phones, be it bigger screens faster processors, LTE data (someday Ofcom willing), or better streaming media all extract increasing demands on the battery of a mobile phone. Alas, Moore’s Law has not made it to battery size and power, so the  demand is always outstripping the supply as it were.

The result is either frequent charging, battery swapping; or bigger batteries.  Smartphone makers, and users, on the whole usually dabble in all three. However, with the increasing demands on a smartphone to replace a computer, many carriers are moving to kill two birds with one store and make bigger screens that in turn allow for bigger batteries. Even Apple, whose iconic co-founder the late  Steve Jobs derided over sized smart phones as undersized tablets, is credibly rumored to be coming out with a larger screen with the iPhone 5.

The question remains:how big is too big for a smart phone? Many say that anything over four inches is too big. Much larger than that and the phone no longer easily fit in a shirt or jacket pocket or purse. Not only size but weight is also a factor, past a certain point going over email on a heavy phone is less like being connected and more like working out. That is what people have said about devices  with screens up to 4.7 inches. Then you have the Galaxy Tab, a monster at 5.2 inches and widely held out as the current size champ.

When the Galaxy Note came out, I for one was convinced that it would fail miserably in the market. The specs are pretty good and the screen is first rate abet at the cost of poor battery life. But the size. How many of us want to ride a train or walk down a street looking like we are talking to a copy of National Geographic?  However, if sales numbers are to be believed, talking to copies of National Geographic is an up and coming fad. Samsung reports excellent sell through on the device and the American carrier AT&T is particularly pleased.

iPad, Galaxy Note and Blackberry

Something I found interesting was a post from American Internet curmudgeon Mike Cane. (Note: @mikecane is well worth following on Twitter. He has a take no prisoners attitude in his posts and blog that is more than a bit refreshing) Mr. Cane lives in New York City and in his meanderings about the city notices that the Note was being embraced by the  every man rather than the tech elite and suits. This set me to wondering if people were buying into the Galaxy Note (and by implication other oversized) phones instead of buying a smartphone and a tablet. If that indeed is the case, then the rumored “mini-tablets” may find getting traction in the market to be a hard slog indeed. Why buy a mini tablet when you can buy a slightly smaller Galaxy Note or its like?

Tells us what you think is too big in a smartphone. Or do you want your smartphone super sized?

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Can a smartphone be too big?

Nokia’s new hero phone, the Lumia 900 is up for pre-order in the UK and will be released April 27th . The new Windows Phone has been available for a little over a week in the United States and has hit a bump or two in the road over data problems with its LTE data system.  Of course, UK users need not be concerned about any LTE issues, thanks to Ofcom and the squabbling  wireless carriers we arn’t likely to see the new data standard in this green and pleasant land till 2014. Instead Nokia offers the 900 with the well used DC-HSPA data .  Other than that, the phones have identical specifications Indications are the Lumia 900 will debut at least initially on the O2, Orange and Vodaphone networks and O2 and Orange are offering the phone free as either an upgrade on its £36 and up plans or signing up for twenty four months. The phone can be had SIM free for £486 (inc.VAT).

Early US reviews have been positive for the Lumia 900. Nokia got special notice for aggressively responding to the LTE data glitch by issuing a $100.00 USD credit for all current and future purchasers, effectively making the phone free on contract. The Lumia 900 launched with a $99.99 USD  price with a two year contract with American wireless carrier AT&T. The Nokia largess was not only a shrewd bit of damage control but necessary as the Nokia brand was all but forgotten by the USA cell phone users. The 900 is Nokia’s first major foray into the American market in several years. Even so, the company , along with Microsoft seem to be making similar investments in the UK to gain market share.

The specifications of the Lumia 900 are not spectacular by any means. However, apparently they get the job done, and the industrial design is outstanding according to the review of the leading American tech site, The Verge.

In the US buyers had a choice of blue or blue. The UK has been blessed with a the additional color white as well

The Verge review author,  Joshua Topolsky was one of the few reviewers to call out the phone on its most glaring shortcoming, the lack of Windows Phone apps. The situation with the Windows Phone app ecosystem is the thing that anyone who is considering a jump to the Lumia 900 from another platform should consider long and hard before you leap.  If you have already gone to the new os, the phone is an excellent upgrade from the first generation Windows Phone handsets. New users should consider carefully however.

Whenever you consider changing to a new smartphone operating system, first look at how you use your existing phone. What are your apps that you can not live without? What are the apps you use the most? Then see if those apps are on offer in the Windows Phone app store. If the exact app is not represented, is their an easy work around? The tech media constantly reports that Microsoft is spending a lot of quid to jump-start developers, but the proof is what you see in the store, not what is coming soon. For example, there is currently no Audible audio book app for Windows Phone. Rumors and a YouTube video claim that it is beta and will be released “soon”. However, it has been a month since the video and there is no firm release date.

Is it time to put a wager on the Windows Phone operating system? What do you think?

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Will the Lumia 900 light the way for Nokia and Windows Phone?

The biggest obstacle to purchasing a Kindle Fire for use as an everyday tablet, OTHER THAN YOU CAN”T GET IT FROM AMAZON.CO.UK (apologies, but I feel much better now)  is the fact that the current Fire lacks any way to connect an external keyboard. Amazon had to keep the cost down somehow, and not adding Bluetooth or an external keyboard was apparently part of the process. Put this firmly in the speculation category, but there are some programs out there already that enable handwriting recognition for the Kindle Fire and some evidence that  Amazon may have to either tout handwriting recognition over an expensive accessory or add features to the Fire to match Apple and other Android products.

Accurate handwriting recognition has been one of the Holy Grails of any hand held device. One of the most famous first attempts was the Apple Newton, but it became more well known for its flubs than its accuracy. The late, great Palm brought handwriting recognition mainstream with its easy to learn Graffiti language that made Palm PDAs the geek standard for keeping track of your personal information.

The advent of the Handspring (later Palm) Treo and RIM Blackberry line and smart phones generally pushed handwriting recognition to the background in favor of keypads and texting. However, the Apple iPhone, ushered in capacitive touchscreens and until the advent of Capacitive stylus products the only way to input into recent smart phones and tablets was your finger, your voice or if truly cold and desperate a meat stick.

As smart phones started losing hardware keyboards in favor of more screen real estate, users were finding the onscreen touch keyboards unsatisfying. In other words, we ham handed people who do not have either the hands of a surgeon or a child had a hard time entering information at any reasonable rate. Further, handset makers were discovering that there was a reason that people wear gloves in the wintertime. Even Apple can’t ignore the market where it gets cold. And meat sticks can be so greasy.  Enter the capacitive stylus.

Some have speculated that Apple sees a world where we talk to our phones and tablets as evidenced by Siri on the iPhone and voice dictation on the third generation iPad. Android appears to at least be competing in this arena as well. However, unless you live in the world where you have a private office, a car and driver and the like, the rest of us run the risk of suffering the fate of those who appear to be talking to themselves in the Underground. Or at least brassing off our coworkers.

Right now the Kindle Fire, like other Android products have access to several handwriting recognition programs. Unlike many other Android products,  there is no way at present to mate a Kindle Fire to a hardware keyboard of any stripe and thus Amazon has to either provide a way to do some kind of input or be relegated to a media player on steroids and not a viable tablet option for anyone who sees a tablet as a possible notebook replacement or supplement for serious email or note taking. Pushing handwriting recognition may be the most cost effective way to do it.

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Is Amazon going to tout Handwriting Recognition on the Kindle Fire?

Apple has announced its third generation iPad, the world went wild,  and now its back ordered.While the retina display has been widely hailed as the best tablet screen ever and the voice dictation, faster processor, plus new camera and iPhoto are real lures for an upgrade, if the prospect of LTE speed is what gets you ready to hand over your hard earned quid over to Apple think again. The LTE standard being adopted by the United Kingdom and Europe is not compatible wit the latest iPad.

The first indication that LTE compatibility might be a problem  was during the Apple iPad announcement when it was revealed that there would be separate LTE iPads for American wireless carriers ATT and Verizon. ATT uses the 700Mhz and 2100Mhz bands and Verizon uses the 700 Mhz band. At this point, the UK telecommunications body Ofcom has not even auctioned LTE spectra yet and when it does, it won’t be either 700Mhz or 2100 Mhz. Of course, the Apple site makes that very clear, just go down to the bottom of the page at footnote 2 “ Data plan is sold separately. 4G LTE coverage is not available in all areas and varies by carrier. See your carrier for details” 

The question of purchasing the new iPad should not just turn on LTE. The display is quite the thing, and the voice dictation looks like it will be a winner. Those features alone could be enough to update from the first generation iPad. The additional features are even worth jumping ship from the iPad 2, if your purse is up to it. Of course, you can just skip the LTE issue and save £100 to boot by going with the Wi-Fi only option. At the rate Ofcom is moving on LTE implementation, you may well be ready to hand the third gen iPad down to your teenage niece by the time the UK gets LTE. You know, the niece still in nappies right now.

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What does the new iPad really bring to the UK? Not LTE

The new version of OSX that Apple recently released to developer, Mountain Lion,  has many new additions to the operating system. One thing it wion’t have is “Mac” as part of its name. According to Niliay Patel at the Verge, the official name of the release is OSX Mountain Lion.

This move by Apple is a boost to those who subscribe to the idea that Apple is moving to one OS to rule them all, a blending of iOS and OSX that would allow for developers to write for one OS that spanned across smartphones, tablets, and lorries, I mean Mac desktops and laptops. While its unlikely that  Final Cut Pro will be running on an iPhone any version soon, it is by no means out of the realm of possibility that Final Cut Express won’t show up on the iPhone or more likely the iPad.

Apple and its developers would gain some great economies by being able to develop in a unified environment. (Not that Apple needs any more advantages) A developer could effectively scale a program limited only by the capabilities of the hardware. Of course it does raise the pricing question,  bu considering the past practice I would think users would expect tp pay for every platform. A smart developer might offer an option that if you purchased the MacBook version, you had the iPhone and iPad apps thrown in for free.

Oh wait, Apple and free. Silly me. In any case, it will be interesting to see what Apple has on tap for the rest of the year.

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Apple to Phase out Mac OSX

Looking at Apple’s education announcement and the later statements by McGraw-Hill CEO Terry McGraw that; 1.  school boards would have to pay the $14.99USD “pilot pricing” per year per student and. 2.a paper text book costs $75.00USD per book and is replaced once every five years or so, and that Mr. McGraw expected to make money on “volume”, I had to wonder how Apple was going to knife the publishers? There has to be a plan to take out the publishers, because it is in Apple’s corporate DNA to screw the old school content providers. They almost have to, because the scheme as presented has absolutely no cost savings to cash strapped American school boards, and the prospect of a huge investment into the Apple ecosystem.Here is how I think it is going to play out.  In the US, publicly funded schools are generally overseen by the various states and each county and or city has its own school board that is for the most part funded by local taxes. Apple is going to point out to the state oversight school boards (if the states don’t figure it out on their own) that they can create their OWN textbooks using their own state university resources (ie graduate students) Essentially, once the primary texts are done, its just  a mater of updating and revisions.  For example, the American State of Tennessee has 971,524 students enrolled in K-12. (Think of it as Grades 1-13) The cost of one Apple iTextbook at say $15.00 USD would be $14,572,680. Admittedly, the number includes the entire group of K-12, but, I could see using iPads in kindergarten even if they were not issued to students below 3rd or 4th grade. Assuming 6 courses per student per year and figure 6 textbooks (at least-don’t forget lab books in upper forms)per student, per year, doing the  iMath comes to at least $90USD a year. per student, not counting the cost of the iPads.  However, if the schools create their own content, even at market cost there is about a five year break even for the cost of an iPad. Over, $14 million  US dollars would pay for a lot of work study time to do the basic research and writing of the texts All that has really stopped many state school boards from doing their own textbooks was the economies of scale for for publication.Take out the printing costs and its a whole new match. One the textbook publishers are likely to lose.

Commentators have mentioned that nothing was said about university level textbooks. I suspect not only that was deliberate on Apple’s part, it is where textbook publishers will start feeling the heat. Uni professors love to inset their own spin on the texts they use, even to almost writing their own. In the US, college textbooks are hitting $200USD a book in many subjects. Whilst UK textbook costs are usually 20-50% lower in the US, everyone is looking to cut costs.  Not to mention the potential savings on classes where you get a lecturer who almost never uses the book, but often has other material to read.  In the college setting, an iPad based textbook ecosystem could pay for itself in the FIRST TERM.  The idea of updated content is particularly appealing for technical subjects. From  the university’s perspective, there would not be any real need to issue iPads, students would be expected to buy them.

Where is Apple in all this? Selling a lot of iPads. Where are the textbook publishers? Trying to steal the pudding of the record companies at the home for obsolete business models.

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Is this Apple’s plan for the textbook market?

Thursday, Apple announced the release of iBooks2  and iBooks Author; new and free textbook reading  and authoring tools.  Apple also revealed a partnership to create and sell low cost interactive textbooks with the big three textbook publishers that account for 90% of the sales of textbooks to the first 13 grades of American schools, known as K-12. Finally, Apple expanded its iTunes U uni lecture series to the K-12 market.   Missing from the announcement was any price break for the beleaguered American school system and that it was a closed Apple hardware only system. Also absent was the fact that if you create content with iBooks Author, you have to sell it in the Apple store.

Apple has not indicated any similar arrangement with UK publishers, but as I mention here, that may not be Apple’s scheme in any case. Stay tuned, there may be a bit more to this story as it plays out.

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Apple announces iBook 2 for US schools. Will the UK follow?

The iOS 5 update went live about 1:00 PM -5 GMT.  Users are reporting all over the world that they are having multiple issues with the download and Apple has confirmed that the problem is on their end.  Making matters worse, there are reports that aborting the update is duplicating the contacts list and one user who had set up mail in Mac preferences is getting this message:

The word from Apple is to wait a couple of hours and try again. For those of you with mail issues the link to Apple message boards can be found here.   The smart money is on the iCloud servers being overwhelmed. That said, the Apple iCloud engineers are going to have their work cut out getting ready to activate about three million iPhones in a couple of days not to mention the iCloud music roll out at the end of the month.

Might be some iTerminations come the first of November, but we hope not.

Thanks to crimonsonsky76 for the tip!

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iOS5 install problems-Its Apple’s Fault